Based on an estimate of the proportion of jury-qualified adults who would find a defendant guilty, it is possible to estimate the probability of a guilty verdict. In other words, we can estimate the probability of a group decision based on the pre-deliberation preferences of individuals.
You can simulate the estimation process for yourself. To start, use the slider to select the value of P(g) for the jury pool and then click “Draw Jurors” to select a 12-person jury that will deliberate to reach a guilty or not guilty verdict.